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1) PIC deaths refers to pneumonia, influenza, and Covid-19 deaths.  The CDC tracks PIC to remove the errors of mis-identification of the cause of death on death certificates.

2) Even when ignoring the last few weeks (which is always suspect due to slow reporting of the data), the death count is now within the range of the 2018 seasonal flu.


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Comment by Reid Watts on October 30, 2020 at 2:37pm

"Media narrative" means obtaining information from stories written by journalists who's job is to get our attention.  Over the centuries they have discovered that bad news works better than good news for their purposes. If you compare their stories with the data from their sources (which I do) you will find that their reports are in general not very accurate.  They also have not covered themselves with glory on being responsible for much of anything other than enriching their owners.  So instead, I like to go directly to the source of the data, such as the CDC.  There is no story or "narrative" behind CDC's graph, which they have been publishing on a weekly basis for years, possibly decades.  That's their job.

I have been following all of the simulation models for COVID-19.  They all have been horribly wrong.  I can't fault them for trying, but they did not get much of anything right.  I doubt they will do better going forward.  So anyone's guess is about as good as anyone else's at this point.

Comment by Al Scovern on October 30, 2020 at 12:48pm

Oops. Of course I meant 230,000.  I appreciate you’re revealing where your coming from. The repeated phrase “media narrative” reveals a political rather than scientific angle on your part. The dire projections regarding the dramatic spread of Covid over the next few months come from medical and research centers across the country, accurately reported by responsible media. Sadly, time will soon tell whether these projections are accurate or not. 

Comment by Reid Watts on October 30, 2020 at 10:16am

Al - I agree with your art fair business assessment paragraph.  Your first paragraph nicely summarizes the current media "narrative" (except for the 230 million Americans dying, in which case we must be in heaven now :-).  But take another careful look at this chart, published last week on the CDC's website, and I think you will have to agree that it offers a glimmer of hope that for some reason is missing in the current "media narrative"   And it's from the official record keeper, the CDC, so the facts are indisputable. 

I brought it to this community's attention with the hope of giving everyone a reason for hope, which as you point out is otherwise lacking.

Comment by Al Scovern on October 30, 2020 at 8:13am

Over 1000 Americans died from Covid yesterday. States around the country, especially in the west and Midwest, are setting records for cases and hospitalizations, with record deaths soon to follow.  230 million Americans have died from Covid in the past 8 months, a figure that is expected to double by years end. Between 2000 and 3000 people are expected to die from Covid each day in December. An effective widely administered vaccine is coming no time soon, schools are likely to pull back from in class learning, necessary business restrictions will be reimposed, the stock market, seeing what’s coming, is starting to slide. This nearly impossible to interpret graph notwithstanding, in the near term I see not even the slightest #@*+ing reason for hope. 


Our art fair business has been essentially wiped out. It didn’t have to be this way. A science based national public health policy, even minimally competent political leadership, and a citizenry less hung up on infantile conceptions of personal freedom might  have had us back in business in late summer.  Given what’s coming there will be no indoor winter fairs and, at least to me, prospects are bleak for any sort of profitable art fair business next year. Even with a national public health policy and competent leadership, recovery for a business already in some trouble before covid will be slow and difficult at best. It’s a nasty reality, from my perspective, but better to see it clearly than not.


Comment by Reid Watts on October 28, 2020 at 1:36pm

Correction: It dropped from 18,000 to around 7000 per week in the last 30 weeks or 210 days.

Comment by Reid Watts on October 28, 2020 at 11:43am

Well, no, not quite.  The numbers on the horizontal axis are weeks.  Also, we have to treat the last week or two with skepticism, due to slow reporting of deaths to the CSC.  So it might actually end up at around 7000 deaths once all of the numbers are in.  So the correct interpretation is that deaths have dropped from 18,000 to around 7000 per week in the last 60-70 days.  But note that that puts it within the range of the 2018 influenza season, which I don't remember as being a particularly big deal.  Also, if it keeps dropping at the current rate, it will soon be below the CDC's "Epidemic Threshold", meaning that it will no longer be an official epidemic.  And this is according to the official record keeper - the CDC.

Comment by Connie Mettler on October 26, 2020 at 12:34pm

Am I reading this correctly? It has dropped from 18,000 to 6000 in the last 30 days? 

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