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I have had no discussions with any one other than my immediate family about the Cvirus.
Two family members are in healthcare. Their opinion is that this is going to be in our lives for AWHILE. Not 3 weeks, not 6 weeks. Longer.
They are also skeptical as to the severity, comparing it to other health issues, past influenza, other influenza.
They are very sobered by the effect on the future of the economy.
Would anyone like to share what they know others are thinking, or what you are thinking?
I am wondering what potential customers would be have in their minds.
I thank Don for giving us the worst case scenario, but I think we should consider other scenario's as well. The death rate for those diagnosed is very bad, but very few people have been tested. The odds are that many more people have been infected, and that the mortality rate is much lower than reported. We are not going to get realistic estimates of mortality until testing is widespread. Also, a very large percentage of those who have died were already ill. So the death's attributed to the virus are misleading. If a cancer patient with a life expectancy of three months contracts the virus and dies, the virus is a cofactor, not the exclusive cause of death. The press doesn't makes these distinctions very often.
While it is unlikely we will have a vaccine in less than 18 months, we are very likely to find medicines that can ameliorate the illness much faster than that. Drug companies are aggressively testing medicines already in use to see if they can be helpful.
The initial response of the government was slow and confused, but at this point the rules instituted are far more drastic than anything even considered in 1919, during the great flu epidemic. And the people are taking individual steps to protect themselves. Plus we have much better technology for studying the illness and for tracking the progression of the disease. So the direct death rate is ultimately likely to be much lower, probably under 1%. On the other hand, as Sonja Jones said, there are going to be dire economic consequences from the protective measures being taken, which may well lead to other kinds of fatalities.
Factories and distribution centers employ a lot of people in relatively tight concentrations. If our governments put excessive restrictions on them, we could have soap shortages and food shortages unrelated to hoarding.
I'm thinking this will have consequences well into the year and perhaps beyond. As suggested by a health care related specialist (okay I don't remember everything that comes across in 10 sec bites) only some of China was infected so when the virus goes to the southern hemisphere (their winter) and returns to the northern hemisphere (our winter again) there may well be new outbreaks of this virus in areas previously untouched both here and abroad. Also, we don't know much about this virus and if exposure now means that you have the antibodies to protect you from subsequent exposure, assuming it doesn't mutate which virus' are very good at. I'm not being an alarmist just a realistic observer of possibilities. Being "skeptical" at this point is not being a very good observer.
I think much of the skepticism is the result of how the news does it's reporting. Many no longer trust.
Lately it has been big on playing on emotion and panic. Not helpful.
For anyone like myself that has no science mind but can connect with visual-- this made it easy for me to understand social distancing. Just follow the dots: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
At this point I stopped thinking about what customers may be thinking, and am going into a mode similar to post 9/11.
I appreciate so much all of the responses. I have been socially distanced from everyone and not having any conversations about this, except family.
My one family member in the health field seems to think that the virus is here to stay but that the medical establishment will figure this out eventually, and that we will be continually living with the virus, but that it will be the same way that we exist with other diseases. Younger people may tend to be more optimistic?
As Sonja says, the economy is a big factor, and I hear more concern from family members about this than I do the illness. They also don't like or believe in all of the panic.
Not that I know much about this, but from what I read, I tend to agree with you. This is not going to go away. I'm staying in and plan to stay here. I think it will wax and wane and hope that everyone will stay put so we don't infect one another. I don't think it will be fatal for large groups of people, like the Influenza Epidemic of 1918 (which no one called the American Flu, although research shows it most likely originated here.)
It’s good to hear that you’re taking care of yourself. 10 days ago I flew from Florida to Maine, relatively carefree, a few cocktails in the bar etc. etc. How things have changed, remarkably so. Unlike others, I don’t see panic around me. Seriousness, realistic worry, sobriety yes, as people go about the business of a radical transformation of their lives. I don’t see panic. But there is a realistic sense that we are in for it, and for a good while. And also unlike others, I think the media (with the exception of one off the rails network) has been doing a remarkable job keeping us informed and giving us some direction. They say things are bad because they are in fact quite bad. I find myself less interested in making art right now. It feels a bit irrelevant though I’ll get back to it in time. I cook a lot instead and find that I am drinking more and liking it more. And staring at my wife and feeling thankful for her and pondering how incredibly weird all of this is.
Thank you for your replies, Connie and Al.
I'm glad to hear that you aren't seeing panic. The panic that my son refers to is concerning the stock market's reaction and the economy, I'm sure, and not so much the virus.
The news I still watch every night. I think that it has jaded some, because it has been reporting nightly for some time by leading with -breaking news! -special report! People feel that the news has cried wolf too many times, so now when there really is a critically important story, as this one, not everyone is so apt to believe. Showing the stock market dumping and lines at the stores can cause an emotional reaction of course. The actual words the anchor is saying -true, but the delivery can be over the top dramatic at times.
After months of listening to impeachment news, many listeners are probably worn down. So even though the next big story is this one, I think some people tuned out.
Actually, what Don presented was far from the worst case.
I don’t see why the US mortality rate should be any different than the Italian or even Lombardi rate, which is close to 10%. Even in Lombardi, local doctors say the real rate is probably higher than the official statistics because the official count is only of people dying in hospitals, missing elderly people who are dying at home. I also noticed that a German statistician opined that Germany’s relatively low rate would catch up to Italy’s over the next few weeks.
At the current growth rate in the US, the number of infected will hit 260 million between April 18 and May 12. A 10% mortality rate would mean 26 million dead. This thing is serious.
For people in my age group or older, the best survival strategy is to hide until there is a vaccine (hopefully sometime in 2021). That will be true for both us artists and our primary customer demographic set.
Bear in mind that we have no idea how many people are infected and asymptomatic. The mortality rate in Italy is based on the people who are ill enough to be hospitalized. There may be ten or twenty times as many who are infected and uncounted. If there are 10 times as many uncounted people, than the mortality rate is around 1%.
I have been mildly ill for almost 3 weeks. If there was a test that was available I would take it, but until there is, or I get much worse, I can only guess whether I have Covid 19 or not.
That is not to minimize that this is serious. A 1% mortality rate will kill over a million Americans if half our residents get infected. But a month of shelter in place will preclude the infection numbers you anticipate, as long as we can figure out good testing protocols in the interval. There are a lot of very bright well-trained people working on tests and protocols all over the world.
Sorry to hear that you may have Covid 19.
I agree with your optimism - I was just trying to describe the worst case.
Did you contact a doctor and were told that no test is available yet?
Thank you for your concern. Whether I have had Covid 19 or not, I was not very ill. I had a mild fever for a couple hours and some sneezing and coughing and nasal congestion. i have had allergy seasons when i felt worse.
I did not try to get tested. Lots of people much sicker than i am have been denied tests. The irony is that the main value of the tests is epidemiological. The treatments available are symptom alleviation that apply irrespective of the underlying disease. So if I were in charge, my highest priorities would be getting production of masks and ventilators and mass production of tests. We ought to be planning to test everyone, and repeatedly. Even people who have recovered from the virus ought to be tested again, because there are reports of reinfection. If those prove to be correct, the long term outlook is much more dire.
I hope that you are doing better, Franklin.
I have become quite strong on social distancing, and have been home with my husband, seeing no one. When we leave in the car, we see several people out, and when we go to the parks, they are stuffed with people. We have been searching for less populated trails to walk. My state, Ohio, seems to have been one of the first to shutdown.